FxPro：要小心

　　日元：继续在挣扎。大家开始喜欢冒险，这让日元很受伤，也让日本银行资产购买和日本政治的不确定性的前景很模糊。目前日本政治焦点就是财政注入和自民党呼吁新选举。日本银行看到日元处于困境之中会很高兴。

　　中央银行与黄金

　　AUD: Aussie traded through 1.04 yesterday and is still attracting plenty of foreign buyers. The local ASX 200 reached a 14mth high overnight. AUD back above key moving averages and in the middle of the 1.02-1.06 range. In the very short term may drift lower.

　　GBP: It appears that buoyant employment is flowing through to consumer spending. Retail sales jumped 0.6% last month， up nearly 3% YoY （ex-fuel）. As a result， Q3 GDP growth should be positive. Sterling unmoved by the news.

　　避险货币最近在挣扎。七天以来日元一直在下跌，而黄金也在1740美元以下，看起来都很可以。但是，风险资产和货币在近期内会涨到顶价。交易者在近期内可能会开始获利操作。欧元很疲惫，英镑也是如此。

　　机构来源：FxPro

　　澳元：昨天澳元交易过了1.04。并且仍然吸引了大量的国外买家。前一天澳洲200指数达到14个月以来的高点。澳元又回到关键移动均线之上，并在1.02-1.06范围之间。短期内可能会下跌。

　　美元：14点的现房销售数据不太可能震动大局，因为住房回复已经体现在价格上了。更有意思的事情就是公司盈利，这是GE和麦当劳稍后的发布的数字。疲软的公司盈利可以在近期内助美元一臂之力。

　　英镑：看起来旺盛的就业正在影响消费。上个月零售业上涨了0.6%，与去年同比上涨了3%（排除燃料）。因此，第三季度的增长应该是积极的。英镑没有为新闻所动。

　　CENTRAL BANKS AND GOLD

　　The notion that gold is the only safe asset as the major central banks around the world continue to go down the money-printing route has been one that has held water fairly well to date. Gold has more than doubled in price since the Fed started down the quantitative easing （QE） road in late 2008 （when it started buying mortgage-backed debt）. Gold has even outpaced gains in the Aussie over this time， by around 40%.

　　美元：昨天的首次申请失业救济人数数据和谷歌/微软的盈利数据是一个警告，警告我们警惕仍然在挣扎。美元指数可能会在这些地点固守。

　　EUR: Lots of unresolved issues at the latest EU summit such as banking reform and fiscal union. Euro finding it difficult to penetrate 1.31. A test of the downside likely near term.

　　But more recently gold has been looking tired. The failure to break above the 1，800 level （as was seen late Feb.） has led to a pull-back and neither the price action on the dollar （mostly higher since QE3） nor the trends in real interest rates suggest we are going to see any push back towards this level soon. In dollar terms， gold is still 10% higher on the year， but if the dollar does rally into year-end， this could still end up being the first down year for gold since 2000.

　　Little wonder then that the currency continues to defy the regular drumbeat of bearish prognostications from various currency commentators. For when risk appetite swoons， the Aussie has benefitted from safe-haven demand for its bonds， while in recent weeks the thirst for beta from offshore has also aided the currency. It won’t always be like this， but for now it explains why the Aussie seems virtually bullet-proof.

　　The World Gold Council’s Q3 report， just released， showed how gold has reacted to policy announcements （including more QE） from the major central banks. For the US， the average daily return on gold of less than 0.1% compares to an average daily return of nearly 0.4% in the periods near and just after policy announcements form the Fed. This far out-paced the gains seen around Fed announcements for other assets， such as bonds， equities and other commodities.

　　Safe-haven currencies have struggled recently， with the yen down for seven straight days and gold under USD 1，740. Both still look suspect. However， risk assets and currencies are looking toppy near term， and traders may look to take profits near term. Euro is looking tired， as is cable.

　　ALL: Google and Microsoft shares fell hard overnight after earnings misses and commodity prices dropped， a warning that risk assets may have run too far in the short term. Otherwise little of interest today. Note – 25th anniversary of Black Monday， the stockmarket crash of 1987.

　　澳元风险高，但也避险

　　THE AUSSIE – BOTH HIGH-BETA AND A SAFE HAVEN

　　要注意黄金是唯一的安全资产，因为全世界的主要中央银行仍在走印钞的老路。目前来看这种方法还能奏效。自从2008年末美联储开始走量化宽松政策（QE）的路子（即开始购买抵押贷款支撑的债券时），黄金价格就翻倍了。这段时间黄金甚至超过了澳元大概有40%。

　　JPY: Continues to struggle. Improvement in global risk appetite is hurting the yen， as is prospect of yet more BoJ asset purchases and political uncertainty regarding both a further fiscal injection and LDP call for fresh elections. MoF will be very pleased with yen demise.

　　USD: Existing home sales out at 14:00， but unlikely to move the dial as housing recovery already priced in. Of more interest are corporate earnings， with GE and McDonalds reporting later. Weak corporate profits could assist the dollar in the near term.

　　These days the Aussie can be characterised as having a split personality. On the one hand， there is real money which is prepared to take on risk like the high-beta qualities of Australian assets. Overnight， the ASX 200 reached a fresh 14mth high as offshore investors have rushed in to buy mining stocks which cheapened during the rout in Q3. In addition， Asian investors continue to hoover up prime Australian real estate. On the other hand， Australia is legitimately regarded as a safe-haven these days， one of a select few sovereigns with a solid AAA rating. Foreign investors and sovereign wealth funds have scooped up government bonds， attracted by low public debt and the government’s commitment to return the budget to a surplus in the current fiscal year. Remarkably， nearly 80% of government bonds are owned by offshore real money.

　　BE CAREFUL